Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 0.528439 0.611684 0.702971 0.810401 0.933259 1.069267 1.231140
2025-06-01 0.383379 0.494641 0.629408 0.804154 1.024209 1.291555 1.640395
2025-06-08 0.295375 0.412694 0.565493 0.778019 1.064780 1.436938 1.955036
2025-06-15 0.261310 0.389276 0.565916 0.825719 1.195930 1.701939 2.442897
2025-06-22 0.215099 0.339549 0.520564 0.800451 1.219124 1.818209 2.735378
2025-06-29 0.179961 0.299446 0.481673 0.776424 1.236947 1.923412 3.016721
2025-07-06 0.153247 0.267715 0.450078 0.757495 1.257267 2.030414 3.306603
2025-07-13 0.138420 0.252730 0.442173 0.773633 1.332028 2.224978 3.746568
2025-07-20 0.130024 0.247216 0.448577 0.813048 1.447230 2.492243 4.324776
2025-07-27 0.120362 0.237945 0.447100 0.838163 1.539903 2.729630 4.873375
2025-08-03 0.109529 0.224909 0.437170 0.846705 1.603756 2.922870 5.362472
2025-08-10 0.098540 0.209980 0.421813 0.843164 1.644748 3.078770 5.798079
2025-08-17 0.087625 0.193958 0.402972 0.831839 1.671900 3.215464 6.217495
2025-08-24 0.078523 0.180415 0.387375 0.825098 1.707190 3.370497 6.685479
2025-08-31 0.068619 0.163687 0.363244 0.798299 1.700167 3.445088 7.008024
2025-09-07 0.066827 0.164556 0.375472 0.847173 1.848493 3.827985 7.952483
2025-09-14 0.058856 0.150178 0.353482 0.821283 1.840881 3.905194 8.303781
2025-09-21 0.051980 0.137344 0.333237 0.796664 1.832963 3.980186 8.655518
2025-09-28 0.046305 0.126573 0.316277 0.777267 1.833938 4.072633 9.049446
2025-10-05 0.043584 0.122830 0.315134 0.793804 1.915497 4.339504 9.828677
2025-10-12 0.042507 0.123197 0.323797 0.834190 2.054514 4.739565 10.922513
2025-10-19 0.040620 0.121131 0.326265 0.859923 2.162076 5.079674 11.912335
2025-10-26 0.037973 0.116597 0.322017 0.868675 2.230432 5.338367 12.742229